Mercantilism

This week, the border crossing from Gaza to Israel has been closed, opened temporarily, then closed again when a bomber was caught crossing the border, no doubt it's open again now.

I got to thinking, Gaza, as you no doubt are aware, borders the eastern mediteranean. Do they not have a seaport?

So I looked. There's a plan for one, from the late 90s, near the old Israeli settlement of Nezarim, but as far as I can tell, it hasn't been built yet. Do Palestinians not import or export anything?

Turns out, according to Ha'retz everything going into or out of Gaza and the west bank has to go through Israel. Israel then charges a 17% VAT tax, which it supposedly transfers to the PA, but hasn't done since Hamas won the recent election. It's hard to get good information on the region, since one side has a regrettable tendency to speak and write in a very pretty-looking language which isn't English, so if you know anything about the Egyptian border with Gaza, a deep water seaport, an airport, or any of the things that really ought to go along with independence, I'd love to hear about it.

I know that the memory of deserts filled with tanks and Arab armies coming to kill every Jew in Israel is still fresh. If I were an Israeli, I would want some guarantees about what gets imported into a Gaza seaport. If I were an Israeli with the right connections, I'd want to keep the Palestinians from trading with any other country except through my import-export company. If I had to make a wager, I'd say that the people making money by importing goods into Gaza and the west bank are a larger political obstacle to Palestinian independence than the fearful memories of 30 years ago.

Palestine and Israel

Lets take a starting point of a suicide bombing of a bus in Tel Aviv. It does not matter that the bus attack was a response to some previous grievance, we are looking at Israel's perspective today.

So a bus with a bunch of people on it explodes, and a Palestinian militia group claims responsibility for the attack.

What should Israel do?

First, Israel goes to the Palestinian Authority (PA) and demands this group be rounded up and at least disarmed to prevent this sort of thing happening again. Maybe they should also go to the UN? Have you ever seen what happens at the UN when you mention Israel?

The best Israel can hope for from either institution is a strongly worded note and the rounding up of a few suspected terrorists, who may or may not have had anything to do with the attack, but have angered the PA in some other way. The bottom line is that the PA and the UN are both impotent in that neither has either the power or the will to change the situation. Only Israel can do anything.

So Israel retaliates. Lets say Israel fires a guided missile at a car carrying a leader of the group who claimed responsibility for the bus attack. This results in innocent bystanders being killed. Immediately, the cry goes out that Israel has attacked these innocent, blameless people, and another 10 bombers are recruited, and the UN passes a resolution condemning Israel's action.

Another bus explodes in response to the missile attack. and so on.

This is clearly no way to continue. This is what has driven Israel to take some regrettable actions, which in the long run will only make the situation worse. The latest action, the "Separation" or "Apartheid" fence is probably destined to be the most effective, and from the Israeli point of view, "humane," since there are no bombs or bullets involved, only the slow death of poverty and isolation.

What is the answer then? If war and separation and keeping the Palestinians weak don't work, what will?

Help them become strong.

If the PA had real power, it could control the militias and establish the rule of law. Power only comes from one place - the end of a gun. Keeping the PA weak has only made the situation worse. A weak PA allows Israeli settlers to occupy territory where they really shouldn't go. A weak PA can't stop these settlers from stoning palestinian children as they walk to school. A weak PA can't protect its citizens from the religious zealots who preach death and suicide. A weak PA is bad for Israel. A strong Palestine is less likely to attack Israel. A strong Palestine is more accountable for its actions.

Israel needs to come to grips with the idea that Palestinian statehood means a Palestinian military, a Palestinian airport, Palestinian seaports, it means that the security of Israel in the long run depends on a strong Palestinian government.

It's a tough sell, I know if I lived in Tel Aviv, I'd be deeply suspicous of an armed Palestinian state, but without arms, without organized military power, Palestine is not and never will be a sovereign entity capable of recognizing Israel and making peace.